Tucson By Choice!: December 2007

So you had a bad day?  That's what I read this morning when I checked in on Adam Waldmans blog.  (Real all the way to the end. This has a good ending!)

You bet I had a bad day yesterday!  My client, after months of looking, found the perfect home for herself, her dog and her horse.  The listing agent sent back the contract signed with no changes whatsoever.

I referred her to a favorite lender friend of mine for an FHA mortgage, because that's what she needed.  (I'm a lender, but also have a real estate license, so I can't do FHA.  The rule sucks.) 

The house has a shared well.  No problem for FHA.  A quick investigation by the loan officer (did I say she's good?  She's great!) showed five shares on the well.  FHA only allows four max. 
This won't work.

• Call to the appraiser. 
  If we install a well for this property, will is appraise higher, so the buyer can finance the cost of the well in the mortgage?  Nope!  Water is a given; it won't add ten cents to the value of the home.
• Call to listing agent. 
  Will the seller participate in the cost of a well for the property?  "Not on your life." 
• Call to the buyer. 
  Deal's dead.  Let's keep looking. 

Friday was a really bad day.  Keep reading, though.  Did I say this has a positive ending?

I'm pretty conservative financially.  January's office lease, copier lease, phone bill, etc. are all paid up, but this deal was my only purchase contract in the pipleline, and like most of you, I've been drawing down the savings account since the credit crunch.  I really wanted this deal to work.  So did my buyer.

When I get down about my business, I go to Active Rain and get cheered up again.  Seriously.  That's what I do.  It's cheaper than therapy, and you bloggers cheer me up.  (If you're not a member of the group POSITIVE ATTITUDE for the Weary Soul, or it's musical sibling, Inspired By Song!, sign up for both groups!)

Adam Waldman's post on Inspired by Song just absolutely made my day!  I swiped his clip art for this blog post.  The post is titled So You Had A Bad Day? .  He has a YouTube song embedded half way down.  Sometimes I skip the YouTube videos when I'm in a hurry.  This morning, I wasn't in a hurry.  Thank God!  Between his story about his little guy and the video, I'm on top of the world right now.  Go read it and take a listen, but not before you leave a comment here! LOL

The rest of the story will put a smile on your face. 

A message this morning from the listing agent:  "Seller has another property similar to the DC (dead contract) property.  It's newer, and if your buyer will switch properties, we'll have a deal.  Property sits up on a hill, and has even better views than the DC property.  Same size lot--2 1/2 acres, and only two shares on the well." 

The buyer's going to take a look today, and I think we'll make it happen.

Thanks, Adam!  Thanks, Active Rain Bloggers!  Where there's a will, there's a way.

And that's the real estate opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender,

Mike in Tucson

Two UP arrows.  Five DOWN arrows.  That's the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service sales snapshot for the month of November, 2007.

Quick glance?  "Boo!  Hiss!  See?  I told you the sky was falling!"  But that's not the real picture at all.

First:  Look at the UP arrows. 

The average sales price is up again. 

Pending contracts are up as well.

Second: Look at the good DOWN arrows.

The median sales price is down.  This is good for buyers coming into the market.  What's good for buyers is good for real estate agents and lenders.

Active listings are flat.  Existing inventory is beginning to shrink.  We're not to the level of scarcity by a long shot, but this is a good trend.

New listings are down by more than 7.5%.  This supports the flattening out and shrinkage of our overall inventory.  That's good.

Third:  Look at the real DOWN arrows. 

Home sales volume and home sales units are down
by more than 20%. 

The pie is only around 80% of what it used to be.  Don't whine.  Deal with it.  It's your chosen profession, whether you're an agent, a lender, a title officer or a home stager. 

When I'm shopping for something (real men DO shop) I want to deal with a salesperson who is competent, confident, knowledgable, and who will listen to me.  I want a professional salesperson.  That's a good term. 
Say it again out loud.  Professional salesperson!

You're a professional salesperson.  Act like one!  Look at that big pie.  Go get your fork and some whipped cream.  Let's celebrate 2008!  It's going to be great if you make it so!

And that's the real estate opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender,

Mike in Tucson

Close to IBM, Raytheon, and Davis Monthan Air Force Base, this home was built new in 2006.  It's half a mile from the elementary and middle schools, and within sight of the Pima Air and Space Museum, which is half a mile to the north.  At only $139.59 per square foot, it's a great value.  It can be yours for $177,000.

Many new homes built in new subdivisions are situated so that the back yard of one abuts the back yard of another.  One's view consists of the portion of the house behind you that sticks up above the wall that separates the two homes.  Not so good!

That's not the case here!  This lovely Corazon del Pueblo home has unobstructed views of the Rincon and Catalina mountain ranges from the Master bedroom, Great Room, Dining Area, Kitchen, and the covered patio.  The back yard is walled; behind it are no homes; instead, there is common area planted with desert Mesquite and Palo Verde trees, a paved bicycle path and separate jogging path, and an arroyo beyond.  Enjoy the show!  Call me to schedule an appointment.  (520) 349-9090

Mike in Tucson  www.MikeInTucson.com

As the year comes to a close, I'm particularly grateful for Active Rain, and the part it's played in developing my business this year.  But it's not Active Rain, it's you, and others just like you from Hawaii, Alaska, Canada and every one of the lower 48 states who have made 2007 such a pivotal year for me. 

People buy real estate from other people, preferably people they know and trust.  The financing takes place as a transaction between people--not between a person and a "company."

You have touched my life by reading my blog.  I've come to know you, (most of you,) and to like you.  I've developed trust in you by reading your blog.  This is huge. Let me say it once more.  We humans prefer to do business with others that we know, like and trust. 

I've come to know, like and trust a whole community of people this year through Active Rain.  So let me share my home with you for a minute.  I'm grateful to be able to do so.

Mike in Tucson

Okay, Tucson isn't one of these.  Housing prices are up in 70 major markets in China, but it could have financial implications for the United States, our mortgage funding availabilty, and our interest rates! 

While we're trying to figure out how to get things going again in the US, China is trying to slow things down.  Bloomberg reported today that "House prices in 70 major cities [in China] jumped 10.5 percent in November from a year earlier." 

Elaine Kurtenbach, an AP writer and blogger, talked about this two weeks ago, but I haven't seen additional reporting until today.

"Of all Asia's markets, China's is the hottest - although the boom is creating problems there, too. Housing inflation is pricing some people out of the market, and authorities worried about excessive development are raising interest rates and taking other steps to curb lending.

Many Chinese families are already deep into speculating on property, a main driver of the surging prices that have Chinese authorities worried a bubble may be forming. New apartments north of Shanghai's famous Bund waterfront are selling for a record $17,000 per square meter.

Yi Xianrong, a prominent economist at the China Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, is one of those sounding the alarm.  He contends that China's housing loans are riskier than those in the U.S. because most loan applicants give false information about their assets and income."

Does any of this sound familiar?  China has no equivalent to our three credit bureaus in the US.  Lacking a comprehensive credit vetting system, the quality of loans may be even lower than those in the US which have caused the subprime crisis.

China raised its benchmark rate today, and it's sitting just under 7.5%  This kind of return will cause an inflow of speculative capital from other countries around the world.  When China's housing bubble pops, the fallout in terms of capital liquidity will make our subprime mess seem trivial by comparison.  There will be local implications for you as a lender and the real estate community whose livlihood depends on mortgage availability.

And that's the real estate opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender,

Mike in Tucson

Blogging on Active Rain has transformed me.  It's transformed the way I view my business.  It's transformed the way my clients perceive me.  And it's made my phone ring.  I guess you could say I've become an AR Evangelist.  (That word is based on the word "gospel," which means "good news.")

Today I launched a new website:  http://www.mikeintucson.com/, and I have Active Rain to thank.

Last July I found the Active Rain Real Estate Network by chance when it was mentioned on Inman News.  It took me all of three or four minutes to decide this was the place for me and my business--a portal from which to explore the world, and from which to introduce myself and my business to people I knew I would never meet otherwise.  You are one of those people.  I'm glad to know you.

I chronicled the decision to abandon my brand of four years in Zoom Zoom! Zero to First on Google in 60 Days!   That too was thanks to Active Rain, and the many things I've learned here about how to use the internet to bring the world to my front door.

• To you, I express heartfelt thanks for your help, your posts and your comments.
• To Active Rain, ditto on steroids (with apologies to the baseball community.)

If you're a member of Active Rain, but you're not blogging here, you're missing out!  That's my opinion, based on an extremely successful experience with this blogging model.

It's the real estate opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender,

Mike in Tucson

On my way home last night, I came across these 80 feathered clowns, just waiting to make a mess.

The irony of the situation made me pull into a business across the street, get out the old camera, and walk into the intersection to take the photo.

Pigeon poop at a high end carwash.

Couldn't they pick a better intersection to hang out?  LOL

Early morning fog wreaths the Tucson Mountains, and gives life-sustaining moisture to our desert ocotillo, prickly pear, palo verde and saguaro cacti.

This is one of the most beautiful times of year in the Arizona Sonoran desert.  If you live here, you're blessed beyond measure.  If you don't, come visit!

Daytime temperatures are typically in the high 60s and low 70s.  The low tonight will be in the 30s, and it's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas in the desert.

If you're considering relocating to Tucson, give me a call.

If you would like a full size copy of my photo emailed to you for a screensaver or other non-commercial use, just send me an email request through Active Rain!

Merry Christmas from Mike in Tucson

At Tucson's Reid Park Zoo, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!  Thursday through Sunday evenings during December, the Zoo is open from 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.

It's called Zoo Lights! We went last weekend, and were delighted to see the Zoo dressed up for the holidays, with twinkling lights, jingle bells, hot cocoa, Santa and even light falling snow!  Oh, and they had stage entertainment.

The Asian elephant is a show-off.  She poses for the camera.  Miss Elephant had her own Christmas tree (no ornaments) and she was just loving it...as a late night snack!

I snapped her picture just as she was tearing off a branch with her trunk, and she waved it at me before stuffing the whole thing in her mouth.  You've got to have big chompers to chow down on a Christmas tree! 

It sure didn't take her long to finish off the branch.  The Zoo's website says that Miss Elephant eats 100 pounds of food every day. 

If you're 12 years old, that's probably more than you weigh!  It might be as much as you and your little brother weigh together!  100 pounds of food is a lot of food!

A crowd was gathering behind me, because Miss Elephant had stepped forward to pose for the camera.

People oohed and aahed as she looked right at the camera, leaned her head forward and shook out those huge ears.  I think she smiled at me.  It's hard to tell, because that long trunk gets in the way of her smile.

She waved her trunk back and forth, spread her ears wide, and said something in elephant language.  It was a real low, rumbly sound.

Satisfied that she had everyone's attention, (but with a little food hanging out of her mouth,) Miss Elephant waited for us to take her picture.  We did, and off she went.

If you go, admission is free if you bring a new toy for the Marine Corps Toys for Tots program.  Otherwise, the cost is $4.00 per adult, $3.00 for adult members, and $2.00 for children ages 2 to 14.

Click HERE to link to the Reid Park Zoo Website.  They have maps, directions, and lots of fun stuff!

It's fun even if you don't live in Tucson. 
At least now you know someone who does! 
That's me!

Mike In Tucson

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter-point yesterday to 4.25 percent.  The market sure wasn't impressed, dropping nearly 300 points for the session.

I remember seeing a roadside ice cream stand with a hand lettered sign that read:  SCREAM TILL DADDY STOPS THE CAR.  I looked on Flickr and Google, but couldn't find a photo.

The jury's out on whether the Fed acted like Daddy driving the car.  CNN referred to financial markets putting undue pressure on the Fed, calling the major players "spoiled, demanding children." 

Will it help the real estate market?  We'll see.  Mortgage rates will certainly be better tomorrow.

And that's the real estate opinion of this Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender,

Mike in Tucson