Tucson By Choice!

I've subscribed to The Monday Morning Memo (Roy Williams, Wizard of Ads) for several years now.

I've never met him, but I trust Roy Williams.  You see, he's never "sold" me one thing.  He's just given me a Monday morning post that

1. is always a pleasure to read,
   
2. gives without demanding anything in return, and
   
3. never wastes my most precious asset:  time.
   

This morning's Memo is about this book and how it came to be.

You can have an advance copy for free.  No strings.  Click here to do that.

If you'd like to read Roy's memo, here's the link.  It will tell you the WHY for this book.

While you're at it, you'll want to sign up for the free Monday Morning Memo and get it weekly. 

I trust Roy Williams.  Do you trust me?

 ___________________

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

Someone told me yesterday they expect that the administration will extend the $8,000. first time homebuyers tax credit into the new year.

That's an $8,000. bet I wouldn't take. 

Here's why:

• Interest rates are likely to be above 6% for 30 year fixed mortgages by Christmas.
  
  
  • The liquidity crisis that many believed was in check when 30 year rates fell to as low as 4.50% in April is far from contained.  It could come back with a vengeance.
    
    
  • Major bank failures continue to lurk on the horizon.
    New York based CIT, a major lender to small and midsize businesses according to Bloomberg, is likely to declare bankruptcy on Friday, July 17th.  The Fed is betting that it won't pose "a systemic risk" to the economy if it fails.

• Volatility in the bond market can provide opportunity for buyers who are prequalified and ready to act.
  
  
  • Today's 4 basis-point drop in the 10 year bond provided an opportunity for some borrowers to lock a better interest rate than has been available in the past three weeks.

If you're waiting to pull the trigger on a real estate purchase, it's time to act. 

 ___________________

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

Image courtesy www.SendOutCards.com/MikeInTucson

US retail sales fell 1.1% in March.  They were expected to rise.  The stock market is down, and the 10 year bond yield is falling.  Other factors affecting today's bond market rally:

• Sabre rattling:  North Korea pulled out of the nuclear talks.
• Profits eroding:  Producer prices were down in March by 1.2%.

If you're closing on a loan in the next 30 days, my recommendation is to lock.

___________________________________________________________

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Think of me as your Tucson mortgage expert.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

The bond market lost ground this week, and historically low interest rates evaporated.  Tim Geithner stuck his foot in his mouth and the US Dollar lost 1.3% of its value in ten minutes.  Everyone seems to be on eggshells.

So I put on the hiking shoes yesterday, donned a hat to protect my bald spot from the Arizona sun, and set off to clear my head. 

The earth still rotates once every 24 hours in the right direction.  Our desert air is clean and the weather is spectacular.  My wife still loves me.  My grandkids think I hung the moon.  I've got food on the table and clients who trust my judgement.  And now you're here sharing a moment of your valuable time with me.

You know?  It's going to be a pretty good day!

________________

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Think of me as your Tucson mortgage expert.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

photo copyright Mike in Tucson (all rights reserved)

Remember when these were all you had to call home when you were on the road?  So do I, and interest rates are lower now than they were back when these were being phased out for touch-tone payphones.

The stock market improved today by more than 200 points.  Interest rates dropped.  Rates are loosely tied to what happens in the bond market.  What happened today is contrary to what usually happens.  Bonds and stocks usually move in opposite directions. 

You don't care why.  Take advantage of it.  If you're looking for a mortgage of any kind, 30 year fixed rates for the best borrowers (good credit, W2 wage earner) are back below 5%, with APRs in the low 5s, depending on your loan adjustments.

Okay.  You're the one person who actually wants to know why.  I'll tell you.  Today's auction by the Federal Reserve of $11 billion in 30 year bonds was mobbed.  Demand was high, so rates fell.  Buyers included foreign central banks buying through investor groups.

The point is, cheap money is available for purchase and refinance.  Call me, and let's talk.

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Think of me as your Tucson mortgage expert.  I only loan in Arizona.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

A helping hand?  (We're your elected officials, and we're here to help...) 

By converting preferred stock to common stock, your government now owns 36% of Citibank.  Like the rest of the "good news" from our stab-in-the-dark, blindfolded congress, this won't be good.  Not for you the taxpayer, not for CitiGroup, not for the country, and in this case, not for the world economy.

This is the third attempt to bail out Citibank.  The first two were not free, but billions (your money) of dollars are gone.  Evaporated.  Oops!  Let's try again.

Citi's stock, already at an 18 year low at the close of business yesterday, lost another 37% on the news, falling to a low of $1.50 per common share.  The "good news" is that our elected officials, instead of converting the preferred stock at a price of $5 per share, only paid $3.25 for something that's now worth $1.50. 

Wow!  Congress is really fixing the banking business!  These people should think of running the Big Three automakers. Imagine how quickly they could run that into the ground. 

Oh.  And healthcare's next.

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Think of me as your Tucson mortgage expert.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

We all make business and personal finance decisions every day.  What to buy, what not to buy.  What to put off, like replacing the tranny after 130,000 miles on the Ford Explorer.

If you're making a decision on whether to (1) buy a home, or (2) refinance the one you have, here are a few bullet points to help you decide between sooner and later.

Refinance

1. The ACORN billions are likely to be spent politically.  "Freeze foreclosures."  That's not a good prospect, because it will prolong the inevitable "bottom."  Home prices continue to decline because of uncertainty in the market, and what your home will appraise for now is likely to be higher than what your home will appraise for in two to six months.
2. Even though the market dropped to a 12 year low yesterday, interest rates went up.  Wrong way, Charlie!  Today's rate and today's appraised value are better than tomorrow's prospect. 
   Strike while the iron is hot.

Purchase

1. While tomorrow's value on a particular home may be less (and we all like to pay less) the prospect of available funds to buy that house are better today than they are likely to be tomorrow.  Strike while you can.

A Bloomberg article this morning by Gavin Finch underlines the necessity of acting now:

The Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer survey released Feb. 2 found that more than 65 percent of banks restricted lending the previous three months even as they received about $200 billion of taxpayer funds from the government.

U.S. gross domestic product probably shrank 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest contraction since 1983, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Moody’s Investors Service says corporate defaults may rise to 16.4 percent by November, the highest since the Great Depression and about three times the current rate.

After taking about $1.1 trillion of writedowns and losses since the start of 2007, the financial system remains so troubled that the government may have to nationalize some banks for a short time, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said.

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, AZ Mortgage lender.

Think of me as your Tucson mortgage expert.

Call me if I can help you with a purchase or refi mortgage;
(520) 349-9090

With all the hoopla, crisis intervention talk, and chest beating in the media about the proposed Federal bailout bill, few have noticed that there's a provision in the bill to fingerprint loan officers.

Maybe they already do this in your state.  I'd like to know.  Arizona at present doesn't even license loan officers!  Real estate agents are fingerprinted here, though.

I'm not for the $700,000,000,000 bailout bill, but I like the idea of keeping loan officers like myself accountable.  What say you?

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender.

Think of me as your local expert.

September 16:  You know that yesterday's stock market plunge means cheaper rates today on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  You're right! 

You decided last night that you're going to jump in right now and take advantage of the combination of low real estate prices and cheap money.  Good move!

Be prepared for a few hurdles in this mortgage market...

1. Higher Credit Hurdle.  740 is the new 720.
2. Bigger Downpayment Hurdle.  25% is the new 20% down number.
3. Higher Bar on Income Hurdle.  Your bonus money doesn't count any more at some banks.

Some big banking names have disappeared because of lax lending standards.  Those left standing have learned a lesson from the banks whose names litter the landscape.  That lesson goes like this:  "Avoid Risk." 

What does that mean to you?  Just this.  Everything you tell your lender will have to be documented.  And even with documentation, you'll find that you'll have to jump a little higher over more hurdles in order to get to the finish line. 

Some good news?  If you've done a good job managing your credit, you'll be rewarded with fewer fees. Good credit makes everything in America cheaper.

I'm Mike in Tucson, your preferred Tucson, Arizona mortgage lender.

Think of me as your local expert.
Call me.  It cost's nothing to talk.  Click the "view my profile" link for my number.